Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 11.279831 13.197942 15.289672 17.733160 20.501916 23.534407 27.099396
2025-01-19 8.126496 10.697740 13.781582 17.719857 22.579470 28.341351 35.647758
2025-01-26 6.696551 9.724479 13.650159 19.032150 26.126574 35.057494 47.033467
2025-02-02 5.561515 8.808512 13.313685 19.874635 29.011950 41.090915 58.030796
2025-02-09 4.715298 8.075760 13.028138 20.629953 31.726410 47.010816 69.257409
2025-02-16 3.881761 7.172490 12.310503 20.597435 33.231648 51.298778 78.490183
2025-02-23 3.127649 6.231534 11.360173 20.035908 33.819731 54.234096 85.923439
2025-03-02 2.494446 5.358817 10.363630 19.230589 33.884310 56.316651 92.158436
2025-03-09 2.102236 4.837432 9.863142 19.139684 35.007487 60.002423 100.937665
2025-03-16 1.749569 4.315803 9.274295 18.803862 35.659642 62.950851 108.712669
2025-03-23 1.609152 4.198485 9.406485 19.738896 38.497552 69.520636 122.487215
2025-03-30 1.419237 3.933698 9.212196 20.041139 40.243175 74.394157 133.792161
2025-04-06 1.219000 3.611069 8.871888 20.059830 41.543417 78.709648 144.618102
2025-04-13 1.048967 3.322930 8.561334 20.102589 42.896092 83.216521 156.058683
2025-04-20 1.008229 3.355146 8.946862 21.583555 47.044692 92.798533 176.542300
2025-04-27 0.932130 3.275651 9.069264 22.528219 50.236270 100.873277 194.851180
2025-05-04 0.857180 3.181586 9.142583 23.370909 53.284410 108.851158 213.368817
2025-05-11 0.742729 2.941957 8.830379 23.335571 54.578218 113.708221 226.637820
2025-05-18 0.616961 2.630161 8.286106 22.711154 54.612762 116.223958 235.841349
2025-05-25 0.500461 2.309898 7.660638 21.814850 53.989470 117.438986 242.718851
2025-06-01 0.431682 2.132902 7.386387 21.713656 55.030105 121.867124 255.663350
2025-06-08 0.363996 1.936039 7.020374 21.339663 55.437905 125.071506 266.460812
2025-06-15 0.346131 1.930753 7.209269 22.380754 59.050518 134.771272 289.883126